Innvandring og inkludering: Reformer, politikk og majoritetsbefolkningens holdninger

• Arnesen, Sveinung; Christensen, Dag Arne & Finseraas, Henning (2023). Look to Denmark or not? An experimental study of the Social Democrats’ strategic choices. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 84. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102629. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Social Democratic parties struggle to maintain their strong electoral position, as political competition has shifted from the traditional left-right dimension to the cultural dimension. This has led to a debate on what would be the most viable electoral strategy for these parties in terms of adjusting their policies. Some propose a “New Left” policy platform that combines social investment and progressive cultural policies; others an “Old Left” policy platform that combines traditional redistribution policies and social-conservative cultural policies. We conducted a survey experiment to test the effects of these two platforms on support for the Norwegian Labour party. Our results show that the New Left platform is more popular among current Labour voters and voters from competing left-wing parties, and the two policy platforms are equally popular among the total electorate.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2023). Valgdeltakelse, forhåndsstemmegivning og familiens betydning for politisk deltakelse. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 229–246.
• Carlsson, Magnus; Finseraas, Henning & Midtbøen, Arnfinn Haagensen (2023). Are Politicians Biased against Ethnic Minority Candidates? Experimental Evidence from Norway. Journal of Politics. 86(1), s. 126–140. doi: 10.1086/726920. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  To what extent is the underrepresentation of ethnic minorities in politics due to ethnic bias? While this question has interested researchers for a long time, direct evidence of ethnic bias in party-controlled nomination processes is scarce. We conducted survey experiments with politicians and voters in Norway, where parties control the nomination process, to examine bias against ethnic minority candidates. The politicians evaluated candidate profiles with randomly assigned information about the candidates’ ethnic backgrounds. Contrary to our expectations, we find that ethnic minority candidates receive higher quality scores and better rankings than ethnic majority candidates. However, the results of a list experiment with voters show that a substantial share of right-wing voters has reservations against voting for a party list with many ethnic minority candidates. Consequently, our study suggests that while the political elite wants ethnically diverse party lists, for some parties, such lists might have an electoral cost.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Bergh, Johannes (2023). Explaining the Surge of the Populist Radical Right: A Time-Series Analysis of the Effects of Immigration and the Economy in Norway . Political Behavior. doi: 10.1007/s11109-023-09887-6. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Populist radical right parties have become major forces in most Western democracies. Previous research has provided conflicting evidence on whether their electoral support can be explained by two structural developments: economic decline and increased immigration. Using time-series regression and almost 30 years of aggregated monthly polling data, we perform a novel test of the effects of economic decline and immigration on aggregate support for the Norwegian Progress Party. We find that the most beneficial time-periods for this party seem to be those of rising immigration and a booming economy. However, our findings also suggest that the effect of rising immigration is halted when the party holds government office. Thus, voter mobilization based on anti-immigration messages may represent a challenge for the Norwegian Progress Party and potentially other such parties going forward as they may become victims of their own success.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag & Matland, Richard (2020). Inviting immigrants in: Field experiments in voter mobilization among immigrants in Norway. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 66. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102160. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This paper reports on a randomized field experiment testing three direct mail mobilization appeals among immigrants in the 2015 Norwegian Local Elections. The three letters all included a general encouragement to vote in addition to practical information about voting. One paragraph was varied to present different mobilization messages. They were: 1) a message guaranteeing ballot secrecy. 2) a message with consistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation and that participation has been increasing. 3) a message with inconsistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation, but noting immigrant participation has been low. All three letters increased turnout among both first time voters and previously eligible voters. The effect is strongest, 5.8 percentage points, among those who were eligible to vote for the first time. Control group turnout was 20.9 percent. Among previously eligible immigrant voters there is an average treatment effect of 3.3 percentage point from a baseline of 40.2 percent turnout. In comparison to previous GOTV mail studies, these are very strong effects, far exceeding the typical response among low propensity voters. GOTV letters can therefore be an effective way to mobilize immigrant voters to participate in host country elections.

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• Ferweda, Jeremy; Finseraas, Henning & Christensen, Dag Arne (2022). The Feasibility of Using Data-Driven Algorithmic Recommendations for Refugee Placement in Norway. NORCE Norwegian Research Centre. Vis sammendrag

  A growing body of research suggests that refugees’ initial settlement area can have a long-run impact on subsequent integration outcomes. As a result, matching refugees and asylum seekers to initial locations where they are likely to succeed holds the potential to improve their labor market integration. In this report we focus on the GeoMatch algorithm, which is a recommendation tool that provides settlement officers with data-driven location recommendations for incoming refugees and asylum seekers. Leveraging machine learning on historical data, the tool predicts labor market outcomes for individuals across possible settlement areas. A flexible allocation algorithm then provides location recommendations for each family unit while taking capacity constraints into account. Drawing on administrative data from Statistics Norway and incorporating a set of realistic constraints, we find that using GeoMatch recommendations could improve refugees’ monthly earnings by up to 55% over baseline. The report ends with a discussion of how the tool can be implemented in the Norwegian context.

• Christensen, Dag Arne; Finseraas, Henning & Holmås, Tor Helge (2021). Kunnskap om kommunene for å videreutvikle treffsikker bosetting. NORCE Norwegian Research Centre. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Denne rapporten gir en oversikt over enkelt tilgjengelig informasjon som bosettere har etterspurt i intervjuer med oss. Vi tror at denne oversikten vil gjøre det enklere for bosettere å finne relevant kommuneinformasjon. Oversikten vi har gitt er imidlertid «ubearbeidet data» og gjør at bosettere fortsatt må bruke noe tid på å finne den informasjonen de trenger. I tilfeller hvor de først har snevret inn aktuelle kommuner så vil oversiktene likevel lette arbeidet og bidra til at man unngår å plassere flyktninger i kommuner som mangler relevant tilbud.

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• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2023). Voting alone: The effect of convenience voting on the social act of voting.
• Arnesen, Sveinung; Christensen, Dag Arne & Finseraas, Henning (2023). Lite å hente for Ap på et linjeskift. Dagensnæringsliv.
• Christensen, Dag Arne & Strømsnes, Kristin (2023). Voter turnout in Norway: Does home country democratic experience matter for immigrant turnout?
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne; Holmås, Tor Helge & Midtbø, Tor (2023). Immigrant turnout in the Norwegian 2021 parliamentary election: The impact of Neighbourhoods.
• Finseraas, Henning (2022). Do Integration Courses Promote Refugees' Social and Political Integration? Evidence from Norway.
• Finseraas, Henning (2022). Treffsikker bosetting.
• Finseraas, Henning (2022). Do Integration Courses Promote Refugees' Social and Political Integration? Evidence from Norway.
• Finseraas, Henning (2022). Look to Denmark or Not?
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2022). Mobilizing Immigrants and Their Families to Vote: Is Political Participation Contagious?
• Arnesen, Sveinung; Christensen, Dag Arne & Finseraas, Henning (2022). Look to Denmark or Not? An Experimental Study of the Social Democrats' Strategic Choices.
• Monstad, Karin (2022). Veljarmobilisering blandt innvandrarar - gjev det varig effekt?
• Ferwerda, Jeremy & Finseraas, Henning (2021). Do Introductory Programs Foster Immigrants' Social and Political Integration?
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2021). Field experiments in voter mobilization among immigrants in the Norwegian 2017 parliamentary election. Vis sammendrag

  Abstract This paper reports on a randomized field experiment testing four different direct mail mobilization appeals among naturalized citizens in the 2017 Norwegian Parliamentary Elections. It replicates a set of field experiments done in the 2015 local elections in a more salient context and with a more motivated public. All four letters include a general encouragement to vote and practical information about voting. Three of the letters include an extra paragraph presenting different mobilization messages. They were: 1) a message guaranteeing ballot secrecy. 2) a message with consistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation and that participation has been increasing. 3) a message with inconsistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation but noting immigrant participation has been low. The fourth letter (the placebo letter) included only the general encouragement and practical information about voting. As in the 2015 experiments, all letters increased turnout both among citizens who were eligible for the first time to vote and among previously eligible naturalized citizens. The strongest effects is among new citizens eligible to vote for the first time where the norm consistent letter show an treatment effect of 3.78% points, while the guarantee of privacy message show an treatment effect of 3.38% points. Among previously eligible immigrant voters, there is an average treatment effect of 2.3% points from a baseline of 55.2% turnout. We also find a small spillover effect of 1.6% points increase in turnout within two-person households.

• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2020). Ulikhet i innvandrernes valgdeltakelse i Norge. I Segaard, Signe Bock (Red.), Det norske lokaldemokratiets legitimitet. Tillit, deltakelse og ulikhet. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. s. 81–95. Vis sammendrag

  Hvor mye «goodwill» i form av legitimitet og folkets tillit har lokaldemokratiet, dets aktører og institusjoner egentlig å gå på? I denne rapporten belyser vi, ved hjelp av forskjellige perspektiver og et omfattende datamateriale, ulike aspekter ved politisk tillit og demokratisk legitimitet. Premisset vårt er at hvis demokratiet – og det lokale selvstyret mer spesifikt – skal fungere i praksis, må det ha oppslutning i befolkningen. På denne måten handler rapporten om grunnlaget for lokalpolitisk legitimitet og tillit, slik det ligger ikke bare i sosial og politisk (u)likhet i deltakelse og representasjon, men også i de systemer, medvirkningsstrukturer og prosesser som eksisterer i demokratiet, særlig på lokalt nivå. Rapporten retter søkelyset mot spesifikke problemstillinger knyttet til politisk og sosial (u) likhet i deltakelse og politisk tillit som så belyses gjennom empiriske analyser ut fra ulike perspektiver: innbyggerperspektiv, politikerperspektiv, systemperspektiv og prosessperspektiv. Hensikten er å forsøke å forstå generelle mønstre i utviklingen og statusen for den lokalpolitiske legitimiteten og tilliten: Hva skyldes disse mønstrene, og hvilke konsekvenser har de? Det er ikke mulig å gi entydige svar og ei heller å belyse alle årsaker og konsekvenser, men i denne rapporten vil noen av disse bli undersøkt og drøftet nærmere. Avslutningsvis samles trådene, og legitimiteten til det norske demokrati anno 2020 – og lokaldemokrati spesielt – drøftes.

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