This project views integration as a two-way process. Thus, inclusion is not only a question of how immigrants adapt, but also how natives react. The project is divided into four parts. The first introduces Get-Out-the-Vote mobilization campaigns as a new and potential important tool to foster immigrant inclusion in Norway. The second scrutinizes the effects of existing policy tools for the inclusion of newly arrived immigrants: early access to voting rights, the two-year introductory program for refugees and the effect of placement policies in terms of spatial concentration of co-ethnics. The third is a study of whether inclusion of immigrants depends on who they are, where they come from or where they live in Norway. The final part studies the influence of immigration and their integration on both citizens' attitudes towards welfare recipients and the welfare state.
We have published a paper reporting from on a randomized field experiment testing three direct mail mobilization appeals among immigrants in the 2015 Norwegian Local Elections. The three letters all included a general encouragement to vote in addition to practical information about voting. One paragraph was varied to present different mobilization messages. All three letters increased turnout among both first-time voters and previously eligible voters. The effect is strongest, 5.8 percentage points, among those who were eligible to vote for the first time. In comparison to previous GOTV mail studies, these are very strong effects, far exceeding the typical response among low propensity voters.
In a follow up of the 2015 experiment we fielded four different direct mail mobilization appeals among naturalized citizens in the 2017 Norwegian Parliamentary Elections replicating the 2015 study. All letters increased turnout. The strongest effects are among new citizens eligible to vote for the first time (3.78% points). Given that voting is also a social act so that a voter targeted with a letter can influence the behavior of other persons in the household we also test for such indirect treatment effects. We find an indirect spillover effect of 1.6% points increase in turnout within two-person households concentrated among female voters. In an ongoing work we also find that being mobilized to vote in the 2015 local elections also contributed to increased turnout four years later in the 2019 local elections.
An increasing number of European countries have implemented formal integration courses for new immigrants. While evaluations suggest that these programs may be successful in improving short-term economic outcomes, little is known about their effectiveness in fostering social and political integration. This paper employs administrative data to study the long-term effect of the Norwegian Introductory Program. For causal identification, we leverage spatial and temporal variation in program roll-out and focus on refugees who are assigned to a specific municipality after arrival. Although we find positive effects on economic integration, the results suggest that the program did not advance other forms of integration, as measured via individual-level data on intermarriage rates, residential patterns, citizenship, and validated turnout in local and national elections.
In another ongoing work in this second part of the project we study placement policies. A growing body of research suggests that refugees’ initial settlement area can have a long-run impact on subsequent integration outcomes. As a result, matching refugees and asylum seekers to initial locations where they are likely to succeed holds the potential to improve their labor market integration. Leveraging machine learning on historical data, one can predict labor market outcomes for individuals across possible settlement areas. Drawing on administrative data from Statistics Norway and incorporating a set of realistic constraints, we find that using a specific allocation algorithm could improve refugees’ monthly earnings.
An ongoing work address the Social Democratic parties struggle to maintain their strong electoral position. This has caused a scholarly debate on what would be the most viable electoral strategy for these parties in terms of adjusting their policy. Some propose a policy platform that combines social investment and progressive cultural policies, others a policy platform that combines traditional redistribution policy and social conservative cultural policies. We conduct a survey experiment to test the effects of these two platforms on support for the Norwegian Labour Party. Our results show that neither of the two policy platforms impact Ap’s overall support. Moving to the right on immigration does not attract voters from parties to the right of Ap.
Finally, we study immigration skepticism in 19 countries based on data from the European Social Survey (ESS). Preliminary results from this study indicates that inclusive integration policies soften immigration skepticism.
